Dubai: Spiralling energy demand in the Gulf states, coupled with a gas-supply crunch, might lead to oil exports from the region falling during the summer, according to energy econ-omists.

A Lehman Brothers report puts the possible Gulf export shortfall due to high domestic demand at up to one million barrels per day (bpd).

According to Edward Morse, Lehman's chief energy economist, the world markets faced a shortfall of about one million barrels per day last July and August, and it could be repeated this year.

"The Middle East now appears to require more hydrocarbons being devoted to power generation than had been the case historically, as power needs to grow," said Morse.

While many expansion projects are being pursued across the region, the fear is that export capacity might not grow enough in the coming six months, leading to an increasingly tight market.

"Oil-boom-fuelled econ-omic growth, together with spiralling populations and subsidy-driven consumer patterns, have made the Gulf states some of the largest per-capita energy consumers in the world. Meanwhile, most of the countries have failed to bring sufficient amounts of new gas onstream, leading to a growing use of oil in power generation," said Samuel Ciszuk, Middle East energy analyst with Global Insight.

While describing Lehman's assessment of export shortfall as too high, Ciszuk said that during the coming summer, peak demand is likely to cause a diversion of gas from oilfield injection - lowering oil output - and crude from exports to power generation.

During the last few years some Gulf states such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Oman have used rolling blackouts to cope with power shortages, and it has been reported that Abu Dhabi redirected some gas from its oilfield injection programmes to its power plants in order to prevent blackouts.

Based on its assessment of the demand-supply scenario, Lehman has increased its price forecast for the second, third and fourth quarters for Brent crude, in part to reflect the Middle East constraints, after prices averaged $96.31 in the first quarter.

The bank now expects Brent to average $85 a barrel in the second quarter from previous forecasts of $80 a barrel, $105 in the third quarter against an earlier call of $90, and $80 in the fourth quarter from $75 previously.

Despite the temporary shortfall, Lehman's Morse expects the region's output capacity to catch up with domestic demand in 2009, probably making the mid-2009 summer season much less tight when it comes to Gulf crude exports.