Russia and Ukraine end gas stand-off

Gazprom and Ukraine on Thursday reached agreement on natural gas supplies, putting an end to last week’s tense standoff in which the Russian energy company halved supplies to Ukraine, a key transit artery to Europe.

The accord removes controversial middleman companies from the multi-billion dollar gas trade between Russia, Ukraine and central Asian gas suppliers – an apparent victory for Yulia Tymoshenko, prime minister of Ukraine, who has been highly critical of intermediaries. It also preserves a purchase price for central Asian gas this year of $179.5 per 1,000 cubic metres.

But Naftogaz Ukrainy, Ukraine’s state energy monopoly, agreed to pay Rosukrenergo – the Swiss-registered intermediary that supplied Ukraine with gas in previous years – a rate of $315 for Russian gas it consumed without a contract in January and February.

Naftogaz agreed to Gazprom selling up to 7.5bcm of gas to industry. Both will compete in Ukraine’s vast domestic market, which consumes 70bcm a year.

Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov said the deal would grant it 25 per cent of Ukraine’s industrial market, which consumes 30bcm of gas a year. Access was fixed for future years and prices are bound to rise, he added.

The accord follows a row last week in which Gazprom halved supplies to Kiev over its refusal to finalise supply agreements and pay $600m (£295m, €385m) in debt. Gazprom backed down late last week after Ukraine warned the reduction could dent shipments to Europe. Russia supplies 25 per cent of Europe’s gas needs, mostly through Ukraine.

The struggle had centred on Ms Tymoshenko’s refusal to sign off on a handshake agreement clinched in February by Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine’s president, and Vladimir Putin, his Russian counterpart. Then, the two sides had agreed for gas sales to Ukraine to be funnelled through two companies owned jointly by Gazprom and Naftogaz.

Ukraine’s economy is struggling to adjust to consecutive gas price rises since the country shifted away from Moscow following the Orange revolution of 2004.

Ukraine satisfies much of its gas requirements with central Asian gas resold by Gazprom.

Kazakhstan, Uzbe­kistan and Turkmenistan this week warned they would sharply increase prices in 2009.

Mr Yushchenko on Thursday criticised the agreement for failing to shed light on next year’s price. Naftogaz said exact details on supplies for this and next year were still being finalised.

The gas talks have been complicated by a rivalry between Ms Tymoshenko and Mr Yushchenko, who has accused the prime minister of straining relations with Moscow.

Taras Kuzio, a research associate from the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies at George Washington University, said the agreement was “a major victory” for Tymoshenko, Ukraine and “European security”.

Editor's comment:

This week's Guest Commentary is taken from a research note by Deutsche Bank analysts, Pavel Kushnir & Olga Danilenko, issued on 14th March 2008.

Gazprom has announced that it has signed a new set of agreements with Naftogaz of Ukraine:

  • In March-December 2008, Ukraine will receive 49.8bcm of Central Asian gas at USD179.5/mcm. Natural gas is to be contracted by Naftogaz of Ukraine.
  • The 5.2bcm of natural gas delivered in January-February 2008 is to be paid based on the contracts signed with RosUkrEnergo and Ukrgaz-Energo.
  • Gas of Russian origin delivered in January-February 2008 to Ukraine (c. 1.4bcm) will be paid for at USD315/mcm. That gas, however, may be returned to Gazprom.
  • Starting in April 2008, Gazprom will sell at least 7.5bcma directly to Ukraine (this is about 10% of the Ukrainian gas market).
  • The gas price for Ukraine for 2009 and beyond will be based on the price of imported gas from Central Asia.

The principal drawback of the above agreements is the ability – or, rather, the inability – of Ukraine to pay the market price for gas. The fact that Central Asian gas will be priced based on European levels has no material impact on Gazprom but it will directly affect the price of gas to Ukraine. We believe that the price of gas for Ukraine may exceed USD250/mcm next year, and cause problems for the Ukrainian economy.

On the other hand, Ukraine is the most important transit country for Gazprom's European gas deliveries and the country’s unhappiness with the level of gas prices may translate into nonpayments, gas supply reductions and disruptions of Russian gas exports to Europe. Some of these problems have already been seen this year. We do not believe, therefore, that the issue of Russia-Ukraine gas relations has been settled.

Russian Morning Comment, Deutsche Bank