ODAC Newsletter - 29 August 2008


Welcome to the ODAC Newsletter, a weekly roundup from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, the UK registered charity dedicated to raising awareness of peak oil.

Oil price volatility continued this week with the current trend being upwards. The main driver is the possibility of hurricane Gustav hitting the Louisiana oil fields and causing damage there. The tension between Russia and the West continues to be a factor, with Russia’s recognition of the independence of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia this week bringing a frosty response from the US and EU nations. India is experiencing diesel shortages as people increasingly resort to generators in order to stave off the impact of power cuts. China however may cut fuel imports in the next month due to the stockpile it accrued prior to the Olympics. The extent of any Olympic hangover and its effect on prices will become apparent in the next months.

Volatility in the oil price has been predicted by key peak oil theorists such as Kenneth Deffeyes and Richard Heinberg. Essentially, a high oil price has the effect of destroying demand, thus leading to a drop in the price and a short-term recovery. Such recoveries are however on a backdrop of long-term decline as demand picks up again when the price drops, causing it to rise again and as supply gaps become more acute. As the UK economy slips into recession, Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King this week painted a bleaker picture of the next 12 months than he has previously. He did however assure his audience that "This is just a transitory period of subdued growth and we will get through the other side and the growth will resume to more normal levels".  In other words we are encouraged to believe that the good times will return, which in effect means that we don’t really need to change what we are doing.

On the international stage it is easier to see that the world is changing. The EIA is struggling to make meaningful oil price predictions in the light of increasing demand from the developing world and, in the words of UK Energy Minister Malcom Wicks “There is a huge global grab for energy going on...”.  Nations are making strategic moves to claim territory or influence.

There are echoes of the Cold War in Georgian conflict, but this has little to do with ideology and this is no longer a world of two opposing superpowers. 

Join us! Become a member of the ODAC Newsgathering Network. Can you regularly commit to checking a news source for stories related to peak oil, energy depletion, their implications and responses to the issues? If you are checking either a daily or weekly news source and would have time to add articles to our database, please contact us for more details.


Disclaimers

Oil

Oil Rises a Fourth Day as Gustav Threatens U.S. Gulf Platforms

Back to top

Energy Price Prediction 'More Difficult,' EIA's Caruso Says

Back to top

Diesel crisis might worsen in October

Back to top

China’s petrol buying spree poised to end

Back to top

Russia's oil boom may be running on empty

Back to top

Mexico's Cantarell oil output falls again in July

Back to top

Iraq, China agree $3bn oil service deal

Back to top

Rush for oil reaches Britain's fields

Back to top

Indonesian Oil Output May Fall to 840,000 Barrels/Day

Back to top

Gas

Drilling Boom Revives Hopes for Natural Gas

Back to top

Geopolitics

Medvedev endorses Georgia break-up

Back to top

Russia's Achilles Heel

Back to top

Harper Arctic Cabinet Meeting Risks New Russia Cold War for Oil

Back to top

Ascension Island. Barren, 4,044 miles from Land's End, but ours says the FO

Back to top

Economy

Downturn could 'drag on for some time', warns Bank deputy governor

Back to top

Recession worries send euro to new low

Back to top

UK

Ministers back away from windfall tax on energy companies as pressure grows to help poor families

Back to top

Fuel prices drive cars off the roads

Back to top

Credit squeeze moves car clubs into top gear

Back to top

Business

Toyota Cuts 2009 Sales Forecast on Lower U.S. Demand

Back to top

Indian suitor wins £1.4bn bid battle for Imperial oil

Back to top

Oil majors look set fair for mergers

Back to top

Disclaimers

The items contained in this newsletter are distributed as submitted and are provided for general information purposes only. ODAC does not necessarily endorse the views expressed in these submissions, nor does it guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information presented.

FAIR USE NOTICE: This newsletter contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of issues of environmental and humanitarian significance. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this newsletter for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.