Climate change poses serious security risks for the European Union, ranging from sharper competition for global energy resources to the arrival of numerous “environmental migrants”, warns a report prepared for an EU summit this week.

“The core challenge is that climate change threatens to overburden states and regions which are already fragile and conflict-prone,” says the report, drafted by Javier Solana and Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the EU’s two highest-level foreign policy officials.

Leaders of the 27-nation bloc are expected to endorse the report’s conclusions at their summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday and to ask for recommendations for follow-up action by December at the latest.

The report is the EU’s first in-depth study of the impact of global warming on the bloc’s foreign and security policies. It identifies several regions where climate change appears all too likely to threaten the EU’s security or damage its political and economic interests.

In the Middle East, for example, “existing tensions over access to water are almost certain to intensify ... leading to further political instability with detrimental implications for Europe’s energy security and other interests”.

The report hints at possible problems with Russia over the Arctic’s vast energy and mineral reserves, recalling how Russian scientists last year planted a Russian flag on the sea-bed under the North Pole: “A further dimension of competition for energy resources lies in potential conflict over resources in Polar regions which will become exploitable as a consequence of global warming.”

The report adds the EU must expect a substantial increase in the number of migrants attempting to enter the EU because millions of people will flee poverty, political and ethnic conflicts, ill health and environmental damage in other parts of the planet, especially Africa.

Higher temperatures, less rainfall, rising sea levels and worse harvests are increasing migratory pressures from Africa to Europe, the report says.

“Already today climate change is having a major impact on the conflict in and around Darfur.”

As global warming submerges land, perhaps even causing some island states to disappear, and as coastlines recede, “more disputes over land and maritime borders and other territorial rights are likely”, the report predicts.

It warns of environmental disasters and humanitarian crises in Asia, the Caribbean and Central America that will place “immense pressure on the resources of donor countries” such as the EU’s member-states.

Competition for resources will intensify because of “reduction of arable land, widespread shortage of water, diminishing food and fish stocks, increased flooding and prolonged droughts”, it says.

Climate change could also fuel conflicts between ethnic and religious groups, turn populations more radical in their political views and make it harder for the EU to uphold its vision of a rule-based international order.

“The multilateral system is at risk if the international community fails to address the threats. Climate change impacts will fuel the politics of resentment between those most responsible for climate change and those most affected by it ... and drive political tension nationally and internationally,” the report warns.